Machine learning is usually evaluated after an evidence interface has been fixed. A dataset, sensor suite, query language, action set, or experimental protocol determines which observations can be obtained, and learning is judged by what it extracts from them. We study a complementary capability. A learner's state can determine which evidence-generating experiments it can reliably realise under bounded resources, even when primitive affordances remain fixed. We call this learner-relative experiment family its effective epistemic reach, and use Wide Learning for task-relevant learning-induced changes in that family.We formalise effective reach relative to learner state, deployment budget, reliability threshold, and evaluation distribution. In a controlled construction, two hidden worlds have exactly the same public observation law. An informative diagnostic exists in a fixed five-primitive substrate. Before calibration, one address attempt realises it with probability at most $2^{-10} = 1/1024$, below a pre-specified 0.95 threshold; after calibration, held-out realisation is 1. Public-channel total variation is 0, whereas the realised diagnostic has total variation 1, and sealed binary risk moves from approximately 1/2 to 0. The construction establishes that learning can change effective epistemic reach even when primitive affordances and deployment resources are held fixed. It opens a complementary evaluation question for learning systems: not only what they infer from available evidence, but what informative evidence experience teaches them to bring within reach.
Off-policy evaluation (OPE) of ranking policies is challenging be- cause selecting and ordering multiple items from a candidate set makes the number of possible rankings grow combinatorially with the number of candidates and the ranking length. Consequently, Inverse Propensity Scoring (IPS), whose importance weight is the full-ranking probability ratio under the evaluation and logging policies, can have excessive variance. Independent IPS (IIPS) and Reward Interaction IPS (RIPS) reduce variance by imposing fixed assumptions on how users browse rankings, but may introduce bias when those assumptions mismatch actual behavior. Adaptive Inverse Propensity Scoring (AIPS) addresses this trade-off by adap- tively marginalizing importance weights over the actions that affect each position-wise reward. It attains minimum variance within a class of unbiased IPS-based estimators when the true user be- havior model is observed. However, its estimation accuracy may still degrade for longer rankings, and AIPS does not use a reward model for residual correction. We propose Adaptive Doubly Robust (ADR), which combines adaptive importance weighting with re- ward regression through a control-variate correction. We establish its unbiasedness when the true user behavior model is observed and characterize a sufficient condition under which it reduces vari- ance relative to AIPS. Across synthetic experiments with 10,000 simulations per condition, ADR improves mean squared error over AIPS and conventional ranking OPE estimators across a range of logged-data sizes and ranking lengths.
We present the first systematic study of the resilience of text-to-video (T2V) diffusion models under random hardware-level faults. While T2V models are widely used for automated video generation due to their ability to produce high-quality, temporally coherent, and realistic videos, their iterative denoising process and spatiotemporal dependencies introduce unique failure modes. We perform an extensive fault-injection study covering both computational and memory faults across three T2V models and a representative benchmark. Our results show that (1) a single fault can degrade overall performance by up to 3.7\%, with semantic correctness more affected than perceptual quality; (2) memory faults are more damaging than computational faults, high-order exponent bits are particularly vulnerable, and the widely-used bfloat16 is more susceptible than alternative formats; and (3) 7-28\% of faults cause visible artifacts, including semantic changes such as added objects, suggesting that single faults are sufficient to alter output semantics. Our findings reveal reliability risks in deployed T2V systems and motivate further research on improving fault resilience. Code: \href{https://github.com/ztcoalson/T2V-Resilience}{https://github.com/ztcoalson/T2V-Resilience}.
Zachary Coalson, A M Aahad, Stella Doehring et al.· 0 citations
Chaotic time series forecasting is a challenging task due to its sensitivity to initial conditions and long-term unpredictability. Traditional methods typically rely on sufficient temporal trajectories to learn long-term dynamics, which limits their applicability when only short-term observations are available. While recent Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown great potential for time series forecasting, their temporal representations are not explicitly tailored to the phase-space structure and nonlinear evolution of chaotic systems. To address these issues, we propose PAC-LLM, a phase-space-aware adaptive fusion framework for long-term chaotic time series forecasting powered by LLMs. PAC-LLM leverages learned phase-space features and textual information to fully enable LLM's time series forecasting capacity. In particular, we design an auxiliary feature module and a gated weighting mechanism for multivariate coupling information fusion and selection. Extensive experiments on representative chaotic systems demonstrate that our method outperforms existing fine-tuned and zero-shot baselines in both short-term and long-term predictions. Our ablation study further confirms the effectiveness of each key component in PAC-LLM.
Yuhang Yao, Bohan Jiang· 0 citations
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Online learning-based control is a promising approach to control uncertain systems, where unknown components are identified during operation to improve control performance. However, resource-intensive online learning algorithms introduce non-negligible computational delays, especially when executed on systems with limited local computational resources. To mitigate this, an in-network online learning-based control structure is employed by deploying the learning-based controller on a remote computation node and connecting it via a communication channel. In this paper, control performance guarantee is first established by deriving tracking error bound for the in-network control architecture, while accounting for computational delays. The derived tracking error bound allows for diverse communication and computation strategies under a specific condition, including time-/event-triggered mechanisms. Additionally, the trade-off between communication and computation performances is shown for a given desired control performance. Furthermore, to enhance the efficiency in both communication and computation, an efficient control framework with an asynchronous event-triggered mechanism in both control and online learning is devised under the existence of computational delay. The proposed event-triggered strategy is proven to achieve the same control performance as time-triggered scenario while excluding Zeno behavior. Finally, we derive an explicit expression of the proposed event-trigger condition for exponentially stabilizable systems, and demonstrate its effectiveness through simulations.
Xiaobing Dai, Armin Lederer, Zewen Yang et al.· 0 citations
School coaches prepare for opponents with game film and intuition. The analytics tools of professional teams stay out of reach. We ask how far public data can close this gap. Professional basketball is our case study, chosen for its data rather than the league. We fuse five public sources into one per-shot dataset of 4.23M shots over 21 seasons. The sources are shot locations, two play-by-play feeds, official matchup tracking, and player biometrics. Alignment across them is 99.5% to 100%. We also report two data pitfalls that are easy to miss. We then model a half-court possession as a sequential game. Shot values come from ShotNet, an embedding multilayer perceptron (MLP). On a held-out season it beats a zone-rate baseline and a logistic baseline, and its probabilities are well calibrated. A depth-limited expectimax search then solves the offensive decision tree, with branch-and-bound pruning to keep it real time. All training runs offline, so the online system stays light. A scouting planner and a playable simulator both run in a single browser page.
Ensuring the safe operation of multi-agent systems (MASs) under uncertain environments is crucial for cooperative robotic, where external disturbances and inaccurate dynamic models can significantly compromise performance and reliability. To address this challenge, calibrated machine learning models, particularly Gaussian process (GP) regression, are extensively employed due to their interpretable performance quantification. As the interconnected communication of MASs facilitates cooperative learning, agents are able to enhance learning performance by exchanging local GP inferences with their neighbors and aggregating the received information via distributed GP strategies. However, variations in computational power and prediction tasks among agents inevitably lead to heterogeneous computational delays and differences in query points, which are often overlooked in existing aggregation methods. To overcome these limitations, this work proposes an asynchronous cooperative learning strategy that explicitly accounts for prediction accuracy, query point variations and delay effects. Additionally, a distributed control law based on an adjoint MAS is developed to ensure the desired control performance. Simulations on unmanned surface vehicles validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, demonstrating substantial improvements in both learning and control performance compared to the state-of-the-art approaches.
A company with a fixed artificial intelligence (AI) budget must decide which large language model (LLM) handles each recurring workload. What it lacks is the quality table, how well each model performs on each workload. Given that table, the decision is a multiple-choice knapsack problem and is routine to solve, so estimating it is the difficulty, and that estimation fails in two ways. Models are rarely compared on the same work, and the recorded score is usually a proxy rather than the outcome the company values. Causal and off-policy methods repair the first but condition on the second, while evaluator-validation methods estimate the second but stop short of the decision. Worse, buying more re-evaluation cannot settle the second: randomization governs which requests are scored, not how a score is produced, so the table stays uncertain however much evaluation is purchased. Yet the deployment decision may still be determined even when the table is not. We therefore ask whether one assignment stays optimal across every quality table consistent with the evidence. For the fixed-budget problem, this admits an exact two-solve certificate: solve once at the estimated table and once at a least-favourable table. Agreement certifies the assignment; disagreement identifies the model-workload pairs where further evidence can matter. We propose CASE (causal active sequential experimentation), which targets evaluation to those pairs and repeats the test as evidence accumulates. On a production log, the measurement failure is the larger of the two: correcting assignment exactly still leaves most of the loss, and randomized re-evaluation does not remove it. In our experiments, the available evidence often does not determine the assignment. On paid software tasks, better information about model quality yields more savings than further optimization of the assignment on the same estimates.
Geospatial foundation models such as the AlphaEarth Foundation produce compact and globally consistent representations of the Earth's surface that transfer effectively to a wide range of downstream tasks. However, because these models are trained primarily on Earth-observation imagery, their embeddings mainly capture physical and spectral characteristics while encoding human activity and urban function only weakly. To address this limitation, we propose BEACON, a tri-modal contrastive learning framework that aligns three complementary views of urban space: physical representations from AE embeddings, semantic representations from point-of-interest (POI) text, and human behavioral representations from hourly POI visitation, while keeping the deployed representation image-only. Using the Houston Metropolitan Area as a case study area, we evaluated the performance of the BEACON framework on nine downstream tasks, including seven regression and two classification tasks against six baselines (raw coordinates, Space2Vec, SatCLIP, TESSERA, Clay and AlphaEarth), using frozen linear and MLP probes over five seeds. Under a linear probe, BEACON improves relative R^2 over AlphaEarth by up to 43% for obesity prevalence, 34% for poor mental health, and 22% for median household income, while remaining competitive in the prediction of physical and environmental variables. These findings highlight the value of augmenting geospatial foundation models with semantic and behavioral signals, extending their applicability from physical Earth observation to human-centered urban analytics.
Longitudinal clinical agents must maintain an evolving patient state from evidence distributed across visits, time points, and specialties. However, how agent memory should be designed for this setting remains unclear. We introduce a benchmark of multi-visit, multi-specialty patient records that evaluates long-context evidence retrieval, cross-time evidence aggregation, and cross-specialty clinical reasoning. Using this benchmark, we systematically study four memory design choices: curation, organization, retrieval, and memory-augmented reasoning. We find that temporal validity is more important than simply retaining more history; specialty-factorized memory reduces context but can hide shared evidence; and multiple agents help when specialists must reason together, not merely when evidence comes from multiple memories. Guided by these findings, we propose \textit{MedCache}, a hybrid framework that constructs temporally valid patient memory, organizes evidence into overlapping specialty views, routes each query to relevant memories, and adaptively invokes one or multiple specialists. Experiments show that MedCache improves reasoning accuracy and memory efficiency over strong single-agent and multi-agent baselines, while generalizing across model backbones and external datasets.
Hei Ting (Una), Chan, Chenwei Wu et al.· 0 citations
Machine unlearning enables deep neural networks to selectively remove the influence of specific data in response to privacy and regulatory requirements. While prior work largely studies single-shot unlearning, real-world systems must accommodate continual unlearning, where multiple unlearning requests occur sequentially over time. In this work, we identify a fundamental limitation of this setting: plasticity collapse, a progressive breakdown in a model's ability to effectively forget. Through theoretical analysis of continual unlearning dynamics, we show that continual unlearning operations accumulate geometric constraints in parameter space, leading to saturated subspaces that restrict future updates. This structural effect induces two distinct failure modes: (1) Forward failure -- diminishing forgetting quality for subsequent tasks, and (2) Backward failure -- spontaneous re-memorization of previously forgotten information. Extensive experiments across multiple architectures, datasets, and methods in image classification confirm that plasticity collapse is not an artifact of specific implementations, but a pervasive phenomenon inherent to continual unlearning. Our findings reveal a critical barrier to the long-term reliability of machine unlearning systems and motivate the development of plasticity-preserving unlearning algorithms. Our code is available at https://github.com/TIML-Group/Continual-Machine-Unlearning-Plasticity-Collapse
Yingdan Shi, Xiang Xu, Kaize Ding et al.· 0 citations
Diffusion models are increasingly used not only for sampling from learned data distributions, but also for generating samples that optimize task-specific objectives. A common approach is to guide the reverse diffusion process using gradients of an external objective. However, when the data distribution is supported on a structured feasible set, such as a manifold or a constraint set, gradient guidance can move samples away from the learned data geometry. In this paper, we study a simple projected-gradient-guided diffusion update based on the observation that the Stein denoising operator can act as an approximate projection onto the data geometry. The proposed update incorporates the objective gradient inside the denoising step, yielding an inference-time method that uses only a pretrained denoiser and gradient evaluations. We analyze this update as an inexact projected-gradient method for constrained optimization over learned feasible geometries. Our theory covers three settings: linear manifolds, compact convex feasible sets, and compact Riemannian submanifolds. In all these settings, we prove descent and finite-time convergence guarantees. Numerical experiments support the theoretical interpretation and illustrate how the proposed update balances objective descent with preservation of the learned geometry.
Run-Yu Zhang, Jia-Wei Zhang, Gioele Zardini et al.· 0 citations
A new machine-learning framework aims to improve the success rate of computational protein design while moving away from results that reproduce sequences found in nature.
MIT News · Artificial Intelligence· news.mit.eduAug 24, 2026
A new method for surgically removing training examples from a model reveals that as datasets grow, the link between what a model learns and what it produces dissolves.
