Predicting a football match before kickoff requires more than knowing past results: a model must use changing information and make a clear prediction before the answer is available. We present WorldCupArena, a dynamic benchmark for language models and deep-research agents. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is its first evaluation, and the same process can be reused for future leagues and cups. Before each match, a model either receives a common evidence package or searches for information itself. It predicts the result and score, likely players and events, match statistics, and the outcome of the competition. After the match, these predictions are compared with the recorded result. We report result accuracy, exact-score accuracy, and a scoreline score that gives some credit when a predicted score is close but not exact, together with scores for the other prediction tasks. Across systems, similar result accuracy can mask larger differences in detailed predictions. Four systems predicted champion Spain, and two of them also recovered the exact final pairing. Compared with betting-market and human-fan baselines, the best system shows only small gains in result and exact-score accuracy, but a clearer gain in Scoreline. New schedules can be added as they begin, allowing the benchmark to evaluate future models without using outcomes that are already known. Code, predictions and evaluation scripts will be publicly released.
Zhaokai Wang, Tianlin Gui, Jiayuan Rao et al.· 0 citations
Language models (LMs) represent tokens using embedding matrices that scale linearly with the vocabulary size. To constrain the parameter footprint, prior work proposes hashing many tokens into a single vector within encoder-only models. While this offers parameter efficiency, many-to-one collisions prevent its use in causal LMs. In this paper, we propose MultiHashFormer, a new framework that allows hash-based autoregression. Each token is represented as a unique hash signature, a short sequence of discrete hash IDs, generated by multiple independent hash functions. A Hash Encoder compresses this signature into a single latent vector for processing by a Transformer decoder. Then, a Hash Decoder generates the hash signature of the next token, which is then mapped back to text. We evaluate our approach at the 100M, 1B and 3B parameter scales, demonstrating that MultiHashFormer consistently outperforms standard Transformer LMs across multiple benchmarks. Furthermore, we show that our model handles multilingual vocabulary expansion with a constant parameter footprint without any modifications.
Significant progress has been made in aligning LLMs with target value functions. We argue that, even when an LLM has been well aligned in (post-)training, it may still fail to maximise the aligned value in reasoning. We mathematically formalise this gap as rational value risk: the utility discrepancy between a model's deployed reasoning strategy and its rational counterpart whose responses maximise utility in the steepest direction. The estimation error of rational value risk is further decomposed into three components from bounded prompts, bounded responses, and imperfect verifiers. Extensive experiments are conducted, covering models Llama-3.1, Qwen-2.5, T\"ulu-3 families (7B-72B), GPT-5.2, GPT-5.5, and DeepSeek-V4, and benchmarks UltraFeedback, AlpacaEval, GSM8K, MATH, HumanEval, and MathArena. The results validate that (1) rational value risk is widespread; (2) value alignment can reduce, but cannot avoid, it; (3) self-consistency can improve rationality; and (4) a longer chain of thought improves rationality but with diminishing returns. The code is at https://github.com/EVIEHub/LLM-Rationality
Multi-agent debate improves the reliability of large language models (LLMs) through iterative peer critiques. However, fixed topologies often introduce persistent positional biases, amplify unreliable agents, and cause high sensitivity to role assignments. We introduce \textit{Permutation-Equivariant Adaptive Routing Multi-Agent Debate (PEAR)}, an inference-time train-free protocol that dynamically reconfigures communication roles and sparse topologies across consecutive debate rounds. By strategically switching agent-to-role assignments based on evolving agent states, PEAR prevents any agent from permanently occupying a privileged network position or distributes influence more evenly across the debate. We theoretically characterize PEAR as an equivariant sparse router: it preserves accuracy under agent relabeling while reducing routing complexity and improving generalization. Comprehensive empirical evaluations across four reasoning benchmarks and six diverse LLM backbones demonstrate PEAR significantly improves average accuracy over the strongest debate baselines. The code is available at https://github.com/EVIEHub/PEAR.
Yang Feng, Ziwei Xu, Xia Hu et al.· 0 citations
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AI agents rely on a harness of skills, tools, and workflows to solve complex problems. Continually improving this harness is essential for adapting to new tasks. However, existing optimization methods typically require ground-truth validation sets, yet such labeled data is difficult to acquire in practical deployment settings. To address this problem, we introduce Retrospective Harness Optimization (RHO), a self-supervised method that optimizes the agent harness using only past trajectories. Specifically, RHO selects a diverse coreset of challenging tasks from past trajectories and re-solves them in parallel. The agent analyzes these rollouts using self-validation and self-consistency, then generates candidate harness updates and selects the most effective one by its own pairwise self-preference. We evaluate RHO across three diverse domains, spanning software engineering, technical work, and knowledge work. Notably, a single optimization round improves the pass rate on SWE-Bench Pro from 59% to 78% without any external grading. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrates that RHO effectively targets prior failure modes. As a result, the optimized harness alters the agent's behavior patterns and sustains higher accuracy during long-horizon sessions.
Wenbo Pan, Shujie Liu, Chin-Yew Lin et al.· 0 citations
Linear attention reduces the quadratic cost of softmax attention by maintaining a recurrent fast-weight state, but it consistently lags on in-context retrieval and long-context tasks. Existing remedies act on the write side of memory through gating, delta updates, or kernel feature maps, but the read step is left unchanged: every past key contributes additively to the output, so useful targets are diluted by the bulk of stored vectors. We borrow one specific piece of softmax's geometry to construct a cheap read-time contraction of the query. A second-order Taylor expansion of the softmax log-partition at the isotropic-attention point gives a local quadratic model whose curvature coincides with the running key covariance, a quantity that can be maintained with the same recurrent/chunkwise mechanism as the linear-attention state. The associated linear operator contracts the query along the high-variance directions of memory before it reads the state. We call this mechanism Curvature-Conditioned Query (CCQ). CCQ modifies only the read step and is composable with any linear-attention backbone. Attached to GLA and Gated DeltaNet, it improves perplexity, zero-shot downstream accuracy, S-NIAH retrieval at and beyond the training context, length-extrapolation perplexity from 4K to 20K, and LongBench accuracy.
Dong Le, Thong Nguyen, Cong-Duy Nguyen et al.· 0 citations
Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong performance on general tasks, while often struggling to adapt to specialized domains without high-quality domain-specific data. Existing LLM-based data curation methods primarily rely on human-designed workflows, leaving it unexamined whether LLMs can autonomously execute an end-to-end data engineering pipeline for model specialization. We formalize Autonomous Agentic Data Engineering, a novel task designed to evaluate LLMs as autonomous data engineers that drive model specialization through end-to-end data curation. We frame data as an optimizable component and study agents that plan, generate, and iteratively optimize training data across multiple domains, guided by post-training performance improvement. Experiments show that autonomous LLM data engineers yield substantial gains, as GPT-5.2 constructs a training curriculum that improves a student model by 57.29%, entirely through iterative, agent-driven data adaptation. By illuminating both potential and bottlenecks, our study establishes autonomous data engineering as a measurable capability and charts a path toward agent-driven model specialization (Code will be released at https://github.com/zjunlp/DataAgent).
Yujie Luo, Xiangyuan Ru, Jingsheng Zheng et al.· 0 citations
Long-horizon interactions require language models to manage accumulating information: when to update their state, when to preserve their state, and what to ignore. We study this challenge as Contextual Belief Management (CBM): maintaining a predicted belief state aligned with formal evidence while isolating task-irrelevant noise. To make CBM measurable, we introduce BeliefTrack, a closed-world benchmark spanning Rule Discovery and Circuit Diagnosis, where a finite belief space and symbolic verifiers enable exact turn-level evaluation. BeliefTrack diagnoses three failures: Failed Stay, Failed Update, and Failed Isolation. Across multiple LLMs, vanilla models exhibit severe CBM failures, while explicit belief-tracking prompts provide limited gains. In contrast, reinforcement learning with belief-state rewards reduces failure rates by 70.9% on average. Further probing reveals latent belief-state dynamics behind these failures, and representation-level steering reduces failure rates by 46.1% across two tasks (Code is available at https://github.com/zjunlp/CBM).
Haoming Xu, Weihong Xu, Zongrui Li et al.· 0 citations
Modern large language models (LLMs) achieve state-of-the-art machine translation performance, but they do so as broad generalists largely trained for many tasks and capabilities unrelated to translation. Thus, they are heavily overparameterized for this task, resulting in excessive memory and compute requirements. In this paper, we present a method for aggressively pruning experts from modern mixture-of-experts LLMs while incurring negligible degradation in translation quality. Our approach exploits expert specialization and the separability of multilingual capabilities in LLMs to identify experts irrelevant to translation. And because of the modular nature of MoEs, these can be easily pruned without any training. Without retraining, we are able to prune half of all experts with negligible degradation and 70% with only minor losses. With a very short SFT, we prune 75% of experts while recovering baseline performance, and in some settings remove nearly 90% while maintaining reasonable translation quality. Overall, our results show that translation requires only a fraction of the LLM, enabling substantial compression of the MoE blocks that contain over 90% of parameters.
Liu O. Martin, Lucas Bandarkar, Nanyun Peng· 0 citations
Activation verbalization explains hidden representations in natural language, but existing methods are mostly limited to self-explanation, where each model explains only its own activations. We introduce Universal Activation Verbalizer (UAV), a framework that uses a shared decoder to explain activations from heterogeneous donor models. UAV learns a lightweight adapter that converts donor activations into soft tokens in decoder's embedding space, and further supports adapter-only transfer by reusing a frozen decoder-side LoRA while training only a new adapter for another donor. Across classification, fact retrieval, and gist summarization, UAV remains competitive with strong self-explanation baselines while enabling cross-model verbalization across model families and scales. Ablations show that decoder-side tuning mainly improves task behavior, whereas the adapter provides the activation-grounded factual and semantic information needed for faithful explanations. Code and data are available at https://github.com/hy-zhao23/ActExp.
Haiyan Zhao, Zirui He, Guanchu Wang et al.· 0 citations
The literature on test set contamination largely focuses on detection, but the correction of contaminated test scores is underexplored. Our core proposal is to spike the training data by intentionally contaminating some test examples at known rates. The spiked examples can then be used to calibrate predictors of model memorization which enable principled statistical correction of inflated test scores. To evaluate different correction estimators, we first present a simulation framework based on the Hubble models. Hubble models come in minimal pairs, where the perturbed model was deliberately contaminated with several test sets, while the standard model was not, serving as the counterfactual and correction target. We consider estimators that use information from a memorization predictor, correctness predictor, or both. In simulation, we establish basic statistical intuitions and show that estimators leveraging memorization and correctness information are better than naive estimation which makes no correction at all. We then instantiate several memorization and correctness predictors, and find that simple predictors such as Platt-scaled membership inference metrics provide good signal for correction. Finally, we examine the practical considerations of spiking. Simple memorization predictors need no more than 10 examples for calibration and often transfer from one dataset to another. Taken together, spiking is a promising solution for test set contamination.
Johnny Tian-Zheng Wei, Jerry Li, Ameya Godbole et al.· 0 citations
Large language model (LLM) unlearning has emerged as a crucial post-hoc mechanism for privacy protection and AI safety, yet auditing whether target knowledge is truly erased remains challenging. Existing output-level metrics fail to detect when this knowledge remains recoverable from internal representations. Recent white-box studies reveal such residual knowledge but often rely on auxiliary training or dataset-specific adaptations, leaving no generalizable metric. We close this gap with the Unlearning Depth Score (UDS), a metric that quantifies the mechanistic depth of unlearning via activation patching. UDS first identifies layers that encode the target knowledge using a retain model baseline, then measures how much of it is erased in the unlearned model on a 0-1 scale. In a meta-evaluation across 20 metrics on 150 unlearned models spanning 8 methods, UDS achieves the highest faithfulness and robustness, confirming our causal approach as the most reliable for unlearning evaluation. Case studies further show that UDS uncovers residual knowledge obscured from observational metrics by representational shifts, with erasure depth varying across prompt types. We provide guidelines for integrating UDS into existing benchmarking frameworks and streamlining the evaluation pipeline. Code and data are available at https://github.com/gnueaj/unlearning-depth-score.
With millions of users across the world, Julia has been used to conduct cutting-edge research and to design new drugs, jet engines, heat pumps, and more.
A new machine-learning framework aims to improve the success rate of computational protein design while moving away from results that reproduce sequences found in nature.
New MIT research could lead to better materials for a fossil-fuel-free process for making the chemical that's essential to fertilizer and other products.
