Teacher support and university students' self-perceived probability problem-solving: a mediation analysis of self-efficacy

Abstract

Despite the global emphasis on probability in mathematics curricula, students frequently struggle with its abstract concepts and reasoning requirements. This study investigates the structural relationships among Teacher Support (TS), Student Self-Efficacy (SSE), and Self-Perceived Probability Problem-Solving (PPS), specifically examining the mediating role of self-efficacy. Adopting a quantitative, cross-sectional survey design utilizing stratified random sampling, data were collected during the 2024/2025 academic year from 265 undergraduate students in Mathematics and Information Technology Education at a public university in Ghana. Data were gathered using a structured online questionnaire. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) via AMOS version 27 was utilized to analyze the direct and indirect predictive paths within the hypothesized model. The results revealed that perceived teacher support has a significant positive direct effect on both student self-efficacy and self-perceived probability problem-solving. Additionally, student self-efficacy was found to be a strong predictor of problem-solving success. Crucially, the analysis confirmed that student self-efficacy partially mediates the relationship between teacher support and probability problem-solving. These findings suggest that while instructional guidance is essential, teacher support is most effective when it actively fosters students’ confidence. The study recommends pedagogical interventions that integrate autonomy-supportive teaching to enhance self-belief and mathematical reasoning.