Analysis of the Russian economy debt architecture

Abstract

Subject. This article focuses on the debt architecture of the Russian economy. Objectives. The study aims to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the structural dynamics of the debt architecture of the Russian economy during the period of macroeconomic shocks in order to identify qualitative shifts in the debt ratio of key sectors and formalize the main channels of risk transmission. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of structural-dynamic, statistical-econometric and institutional analyses using methods of trend, correlation and cluster analyses, mathematical approximation and their qualitative interpretation. Results. The article identifies the cardinal transformation of the debt architecture of the Russian economy towards the dominance of the public sector. It also confirms the mechanism of the effect of crowding out private borrowers and detects contradictory structural shifts. Conclusions. The scientific novelty lies in the empirical substantiation of the formation of a model of structurally fragile stability, which is of practical interest to government authorities, financial regulators, and the academic community.