Transformation of the Russian economy and financial system

Abstract

Subject. Analysis of the structural transformation of the Russian economy and financial system. Objectives. Identification of key trends, structural shifts and interrelations in the Russian economy and financial system under the influence of external and internal shocks. Methods. The research is based on the consistent application of trend, correlation and regression analysis of macroeconomic indicators, followed by verification of the results using neural network and cluster analysis methods to identify structural relationships in the economy. Results. A change in the architecture of the economy has been revealed, manifested in the transition to a model combining increased investment activity with a significant reduction in energy intensity. The transformation of financing mechanisms in the financial system has been revealed, characterized by a shift towards the dominance of domestic debt instruments over equity. Cluster analysis revealed technological and infrastructural, logistic and construction, and financial and economic clusters that demonstrate similar responses to external and internal challenges. Neural network analysis confirmed the differentiation of economic sectors in terms of risk and stability parameters, which allowed us to identify diversified approaches to portfolio investment. The study shows that the Russian economy has not only recovered from a series of shocks, but has systematically changed its key parameters, forming a new, more adaptive configuration. Conclusions. The revealed architecture of the Russian economy, characterized by a combination of an increase in investment activity with a decrease in energy intensity and a steady shift in financing towards domestic debt instruments, has practical value for government authorities, financial regulators, corporate managers and investors, allowing them to develop strategies and diversified approaches in a new economic configuration.