Transformation of the External Sector of the Russian Federation into a Model of Sovereign Macroeconomic Balance

Abstract

The subject of this study is the interrelationship between indicators of foreign trade, the balance of payments, direct investment, and the external debt of the Russian Federation. The objective of this study is to analyze the macroeconomic parameters of the external sector to identify the mechanism for transforming the national economy into a model of sovereign macroeconomic balance in the face of external shocks. The research methodology is based on a systems approach, structural-functional and critical analysis of statistical data, and cross-verification of the empirical base. Results: a stable causal relationship was identified between the formation of current account surpluses and the process of external debt deleveraging, largely due to the corporate sector. The strategic substitution of foreign currency liabilities with instruments in the national currency minimized the risk of currency mismatch and neutralized the effect of exchange rate overshoot on the balance sheets of residents. It was found that the high inertia of accumulated direct investment positions generates pressure on the current account through a persistent outflow of investment income, despite regulatory restrictions. The macroeconomic architecture has been transformed from a model vulnerable to speculative capital outflows to a sovereign system based on domestic savings and a trade surplus. The identified structural dependence on critical imports points to the need for deeper export diversification and improved external liability management mechanisms. The research results are applicable to macroeconomic analysis and international finance and will be useful to government agencies, the central bank, and financial analysts in developing external liability management strategies. The scientific novelty lies in the substantiation of the national economy's transition to a model of sovereign macroeconomic balance achieved through the synergy of a sustainable trade surplus, structural de-dollarization of liabilities, and a critical revaluation of accumulated direct investment positions. This provides a new methodological basis for optimizing macroprudential regulation and proactively mitigating systemic risks in the face of external shocks.