Formation of supply in the ukrainian grain market in the post-war period

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to assess current trends in supply formation in the Ukrainian grain market and to identify the key prerequisites for its recovery and structural transformation in the post-war period. The methodological framework of the research combines systemic, comparative, statistical, and structural-dynamic analysis, as well as methods of generalization and forecasting. The study examines changes in grain production, harvested area, crop yields, and exports during 2021–2025. It assesses the influence of military, economic, technological, financial, logistical, and institutional factors on the formation of market supply. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between the physical capacity to produce grain and the economic feasibility of its subsequent storage, processing, transportation, and sale on domestic and foreign markets. The results demonstrate that the reduction in the available land base after 2021 was partially offset by relatively high crop yields and the technological adaptation of agricultural producers. At the same time, the continued high export orientation of the grain sector increases its dependence on transport infrastructure, logistics costs, global market conditions and the stability of foreign trade channels. It is shown that the post-war expansion of grain production should therefore be coordinated with the development of storage facilities, domestic processing capacities, diversified logistics and effective export infrastructure. Financial support, access to investment resources, risk insurance, technological modernization and a predictable institutional environment are identified as important prerequisites for the sustainable recovery of grain supply. The scientific novelty of the study consists in developing an integrated approach to the formation of grain supply in the post-war period, according to which production parameters should be determined not only by land availability and potential yields but also by the capacity of storage, processing, logistics, domestic consumption, and export channels. The practical significance of the results lies in their applicability to developing measures to restore the grain sector’s production potential, improve its logistics, and expand domestic processing. Further research should focus on forecasting grain supply under alternative scenarios of land recovery, production costs, yields, domestic processing, logistics capacity, and foreign market conditions. This will make it possible to substantiate economically balanced parameters of grain production and distribution and strengthen the resilience of the Ukrainian grain market in the post-war period. Keywords: grain market, grain supply, grain production, exports, logistics, grain processing, post-war recovery.