Climate variability and trends in coffee yields among smallholder farmers in Bunyangabu District, Uganda. A cross-sectional study.
Abstract
Background In recent years, climate change has increasingly threatened the livelihoods of millions of smallholder coffee farmers. The study aims to assess the average coffee yields of smallholder farmers over the past decade to climate change. Methodology A cross-sectional mixed-methods research design was employed to comprehensively investigate the impacts of climate change on coffee yield and the adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers in Bunyangabu District. This design combined quantitative and qualitative approaches to provide a holistic understanding of the complex issues involved. Statistical analysis, including descriptive statistics and inferential tests (correlation, regression), was employed to identify patterns, trends, and relationships between variables. Results The findings showed substantial declines in coffee yields over the past decade. Among farmers producing 501–1000 kilograms a decade ago, 46.4% had fallen below 500 kilograms, while 64.7% of those producing 1001–1499 kilograms had declined to 501–1000 kilograms. The highest yield category (>1500 kilograms) had a retention rate of only 18.8%. Overall, 69.6% of farmers reported yield declines, while 22.7% reported improvements. Yield change was significantly associated with its direction (χ² = 392.00, p < .001, Cramer’s V = 1.00), with 77.3% reporting declines and 22.7% improvements. Climate variability was the most reported driver (71.2%; χ² = 70.296, p < .001), followed by pests and diseases (38.0%) and soil degradation (33.2%; χ² = 44.449, p < .001). Poor agronomic practices were not significant (χ² = 0.010, p = 0.920). Conclusion Climate variability was the predominant perceived driver of declining coffee yields among smallholder farmers in Bunyangabu District. Recommendation The government, through the Uganda Coffee Development Authority and Ministry of Agriculture, should establish a comprehensive coffee yield monitoring system that tracks annual productivity at the household level