Features of the development of the agro-industrial complex as a strategic export sector in conditions of geopolitical instability

Abstract

The article examines the development of the agro-industrial complex as a strategically important export sector under geopolitical instability. It identifies the effects of sanctions, the transformation of international trade relations, disruptions to traditional logistics routes, and complications in cross-border payments on the export activities of agricultural enterprises. The study substantiates the need to redirect agri-food supplies towards the markets of Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, develop alternative transport corridors, and expand settlements in national currencies. Particular attention is paid to the technological dependence of the sector, the condition of export infrastructure, and the need to increase the share of high-value-added products in the structure of agricultural exports. The principal areas of government support aimed at improving the resilience and competitiveness of agri-food exports are identified. A conceptual model of an adaptive export strategy for the agro-industrial complex is proposed. The model integrates the institutional framework, strategic export potential, mechanisms for transforming external constraints into development incentives, and instruments for ensuring strategic flexibility and market diversification. It is concluded that the sustainable development of agricultural exports requires technological self-sufficiency, geographical and product diversification, modernization of the export structure, and the establishment of adaptive production and logistics chains.