Սննդակարգի էներգածախսի գործոնային վերլուծություն

Abstract

Food security is considered a crucial component of national security and sustainable socio-economic development, particularly in the context of population growth, global inflationary processes, climate change, and reliance on international markets. The issue of food security in the Republic of Armenia (RA) is especially relevant, as a low level of self-sufficiency and a high dependence on imports have persisted for many years across several widely consumed food products. By highlighting the core food security challenges within the republic, this study aims to evaluate long-term changes in key RA food security indicators, examine structural transformations in the population's diet, and identify the primary factors influencing the cost of dietary energy. To achieve this overarching goal, several specific objectives were addressed: decomposing the main indicators that characterize the level of food security, analyzing long-term dynamic changes in caloric intake and diet structure, presenting the correlation and regression relationships among the primary factors shaping dietary energy costs, interpreting the statistical findings, and proposing recommendations to ensure a physiological and affordable food balance. The research utilizes data from the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the UN World Food Program. Comparative, statistical, correlation, and multifactor regression analysis methods were applied to investigate these issues. The findings indicate that during the analyzed period, wheat self-sufficiency decreased significantly, thereby deepening the country's dependence on imports, whereas beef self-sufficiency increased. Concurrently, a structural shift in the diet was observed, characterized by a reduction in the share of calories derived from bread products and an increase in the consumption of animal-sourced foods. Notably, despite the growth in the population's monetary income, the overall caloric value of the diet did not improve proportionally, while the financial cost of each consumed calorie rose substantially. Based on these results, the authors propose stimulating local production, stabilizing the food market, expanding social support programs, and implementing mechanisms to assess the cost of a healthy diet. The findings of this research can be utilized in processes aimed at refining Armenia's food policy and elevating the national level of food security.