Vehicle Segment as a Determinant of Battery Electric Vehicle Environmental Performance: A Prospective Life Cycle Assessment Using Gasoline-Powered Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles as the Reference, 2025–2050

Abstract

The environmental sustainability of passenger-car electrification depends not only on powertrain technology but also on vehicle size, material intensity, energy-system decarbonisation, and end-of-life management. This study applies prospective life cycle assessment to compare battery electric vehicles (BEVs) with gasoline-powered internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) across A/B, C, and SUV segments for 2025 and 2050, including a Paris Agreement-aligned 2050 pathway. ReCiPe 2016, IPCC 2021, Cumulative Energy Demand, CML-IA, and Ecological Scarcity 2021 were applied to evaluate climate, energy, resource, ecosystem, and policy-weighted environmental pressures, while well-to-tank and tank-to-wheel modelling quantified operational emissions. Environmental burdens generally increased with vehicle segment, and BEVs showed higher production-stage impacts because of traction batteries and electric-powertrain components. Recycling reduced most indicators but increased eutrophication in some variants, demonstrating the risk of burden shifting. In the integrated manufacturing-to-wheel assessment, BEVs achieved approximately 49% lower greenhouse gas emissions than gasoline ICEVs in the A/B segments and 54–55% lower emissions in the C and SUV segments under 2025 conditions. The results show that electrification alone is insufficient to ensure sustainable mobility. Its environmental benefits are maximised when combined with vehicle right-sizing, appropriately sized batteries, low-carbon electricity, energy-efficient manufacturing, and high-quality closed-loop recycling.