Potential Distribution Patterns and Ecological Risk-Based Sustainable Cultivation Priority Zones for Piper nigrum L. Under Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis Based on BIOMOD2, InVEST, and Ecological Security Assessment

Abstract

Traditional species distribution models can identify climatically suitable areas but offer limited guidance for spatially explicit agricultural planning. In this study, we constructed a three-dimensional coupled framework of “suitability prediction–habitat quality filtering–ecological security screening” by integrating BIOMOD2 ensemble modeling, InVEST habitat quality assessment, and ecological security evaluation to identify candidate cultivation zones for Piper nigrum L. in China under climate change. Based on occurrence records and environmental variables, we simulated potential suitable habitats under current and future climate scenarios, identified key climatic drivers, and delineated candidate zones by overlaying habitat quality and ecological security levels. The results show that the current total suitable area for P. nigrum is 87.76 × 104 km2, with low-, moderate-, and high-suitability areas accounting for 37.28 × 104 km2, 25.12 × 104 km2, and 25.36 × 104 km2, respectively. Temperature seasonality and winter cold stress were identified as the dominant factors shaping the suitability pattern. Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable area shows an increasing trend, with highly suitable areas expanding toward the coastal regions of South China and the low-latitude hilly zones. After overlaying with habitat quality and ecological security, climatically suitable but ecologically fragile or intensively disturbed areas were effectively excluded, and the current candidate cultivation zones were identified as mainly concentrated in the southern Yunnan–southern Guangxi–Guangdong–Hainan coastal region. This framework enables a transition from identifying climatic suitability to collaborative climate–habitat–ecology screening, providing a scientific basis for sustainable cultivation and germplasm management of P. nigrum, and is transferable to priority cultivation area identification for other tropical cash crops.