ECONOMIC RESILIENCE AND COMPETITIVENESS OF AGRI-FOOD CHAINS IN WARTIME: THE CASE OF UKRAINIAN ANIMAL HUSBANDRY

Abstract

The economic resilience and global competitiveness of agri-food chains are critical components of national economic security, particularly in times of geopolitical instability. The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine had a highly disruptive effect on the macroeconomy as a whole, including livestock agri-food chains driven by agricultural enterprises and households. This study evaluates how these chains can preserve their viability under extreme risk conditions through structural adaptations and market reorientations. The study hypothesis was that Ukrainian livestock agri-food chains had developed distinct institutional and structural patterns of economic resilience, enabling them to maintain international competitiveness despite wartime pressures. The purpose of the research was to evaluate the structural changes, market adaptability and trade competitiveness of Ukrainian animal husbandry between 2021 and 2024, as the sector establishes stronger links with the EU. The research methodology used available official statistics and encompassed quantitative econometric tests (Student's T-test), regional cluster optimisation modelling and trade balance analysis. The findings revealed a significant structural divergence. Agri-food chains anchored by agricultural enterprises demonstrated high economic stability in capital-intensive sectors such as egg production, pork production and poultry production. The agri-food chains led by smallholder households only retained dominant market shares in the highly fragmented milk and honey niches. Optimisation modelling identified three distinctive economic clusters in regional agribusiness, mirroring pre-war configurations but with an increased focus on exports. Despite massive asset destruction, the paper proves that strategic resource reallocation and a pivot to exporting to the EU market allowed Ukrainian agri-food chains to remain competitive in international trade. This lays the groundwork for their integration into the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).