Prioritizing sustainability indicators for project success in volatile environments: a three-phase MCDM approach in Iran

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to identify and prioritize the sustainability indicators (SIs) perceived as most influential for project success within Iran’s volatile socioeconomic environment. It aims to bridge the gap between global sustainability standards and local operational realities in resource-constrained contexts. A sequential mixed-methods design used a hybrid multicriteria decision-making framework. First, the fuzzy delphi method (FDM) screened indicators using an 11-expert panel. Second, the method based on the removal effects of criteria (MEREC) objectively weighted the success criteria based on data variance. Finally, the combined compromise solution (CoCoSo) method ranked the SIs. The analysis reveals a context-specific prioritization where financial analysis, project safety and resilience emerged as the top-ranked indicators, while renewable materials ranked lowest. This suggests that in sanctioned, high-inflation settings, practitioners prioritize economic viability and operational risk mitigation; broader environmental aspirations are strategically deferred until foundational project continuation is secured. The findings reflect expert judgments predominantly from heavy industrial sectors in Iran. Therefore, results are context-bound and may not fully capture the nuances of agile sectors (e.g. software) or translate to stable macroeconomic environments. For practitioners in volatile markets, the study provides a resource allocation roadmap. It recommends integrating financial and safety metrics into core control systems (e.g. earned value management) and dynamic risk registers, moving beyond “one-size-fits-all” sustainability checklists. This paper integrates the FDM-MEREC-CoCoSo framework into sustainable project management to minimize subjective bias. It contributes empirical evidence extending contingency theory by demonstrating that macroeconomic volatility fundamentally reorders sustainability priorities, reframing sustainability in volatile environments as a pragmatic risk-management strategy.