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387 papers
Ocean dynamics are inherently chaotic, yet existing machine learning ocean models produce only deterministic forecasts. We introduce Njord, a probabilistic data-driven model for ocean forecasting, applicable to both global and regional domains. Njord combines a deep latent variable framework with a graph neural network...
Accurate long-range weather forecasting remains a major challenge for AI models, both because errors accumulate over autoregressive rollouts and because reanalysis training datasets provide limited sampling of the slow modes of variability underpinning predictability. Most AI and all numerical weather prediction models...
ML climate model emulators are useful for scenario planning and adaptation, allowing for cost-efficient experimentation. Recently, the diffusion model Climate in a Bottle (cBottle) has been proposed for generation of atmospheric states compatible with boundary conditions of solar position and sea surface temperatures....
Many approaches have recently been proposed to combine data assimilation with machine learning for improved forecasts with geophysical models. Here, we focus on combining advanced sequential data assimilation schemes with a generative forecasting model which accounts for complex model errors. This generative model prov...
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Global reanalyses are too coarse to resolve the convective systems that produce most West African monsoon rainfall. In this work, we use U-Net based architectures to downscale daily ERA5 fields (0.25{\deg}) to IMERG V07 satellite precipitation (0.1{\deg}) over West Africa for the June to October seasons of 2000 to 2024...
Deep-learning models increasingly rival numerical simulation in Earth-system forecasting, yet forecast error alone cannot determine whether their learned input-output dependencies are physically consistent. Here we introduce sensitivity fidelity as an additional criterion: alongside prediction error, model responses to...
Skillful prediction of biomass-burning activity several days in advance is important for air-quality forecasting and aerosol prediction. Two operational constraints motivate this work. First, the GBBEPx satellite fire radiative power (FRP) product used to initialize NOAA's GEFS-Aerosols is available with about a 1.5-da...
The intermittent and variable nature of precipitation makes its accurate estimation over extended domains difficult, yet its spatiotemporal structure suggests that a low-rank representation may be possible. This work represents daily precipitation over the contiguous United States (CONUS) as spatiotemporal tensors and...
AI foundation models pretrained on weather and climate data are increasingly fine-tuned to Earth science tasks well beyond weather forecasting. Their development and adoption are outpacing the scientific community's ability to evaluate them. These models are judged almost entirely by benchmark skill metrics, which meas...
Rapid and accurate prediction of urban wind and temperature fields is important for urban microclimate design and climate adaptation. Large-eddy simulation (LES) effectively resolves these instantaneous fields, but its application is limited in iterative design of urban microclimate applications due to high computation...
Assessing compound weather risks requires forecasts representing dependence between variables. CLARA (Calibrated Advection-Routing Attention) learns joint Gaussian predictive distributions of five surface variables from station observations alone, without numerical weather prediction or reanalysis; the approximately 28...
We introduce EC-EarthFlow, a generative flow matching model that emulates simulations from the physical climate model EC-Earth3. The model is trained on transient simulations from EC-Earth3 (1950-2166, SSP2-4.5) to predict the day ahead temperature field from the previous days temperature as well as annual mean tempera...
Accelerating the search for novel antimicrobial peptides using Google Antigravity for Science.
General Science
General Science
MIT Statistics and Data Science Center Director Alexander (Sasha) Rakhlin shares important considerations for departments and institutions.
MIT Statistics and Data Science Center Director Alexander (Sasha) Rakhlin shares important considerations for departments and institutions.
MIT Statistics and Data Science Center Director Alexander (Sasha) Rakhlin shares important considerations for departments and institutions.
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