RISK-ADAPTIVE METHODOLOGY FOR MANAGING LOGISTICS INFRASTRUCTURE RECOVERY PROJECTS

Abstract

Introduction. The recovery of Ukraine's logistics infrastructure is taking place under conditions of wartime and post-war uncertainty, which necessitates adaptive approaches to managing the relevant projects. Existing project management methodologies fail to provide a holistic integration of risk, financial provision, and adaptive decision-making in this specific recovery environment. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to develop a risk-adaptive methodology for managing logistics infrastructure recovery projects that integrates risk management, a financial-provision architecture, and a mechanism for adaptive managerial decision-making. Methods. The methodological basis of the study comprises scholarly works on project management, risk management, and recovery financing, as well as materials from international organisations. The study employs the comparative method, classification and matrix-analysis methods, the structural-logical method, the method of scientific abstraction, and managerial-decision modelling. Results. An original risk-adaptive methodology has been developed as a system of principles, processes, methods, and tools in which the project's risk profile serves as the integrating element. Seven principles of the methodology have been identified, and its architecture has been formed, encompassing four functional modules – conceptual-analytical, risk, financial-provision, and adaptive decision-making – together with an application loop spanning the project life cycle. An algorithm for applying the methodology has been developed, incorporating a conditional-transition mechanism that ensures managerial decisions are revisited whenever the risk profile changes. Conclusions. The proposed methodology provides a methodological foundation for managing logistics infrastructure recovery projects under conditions of uncertainty and ensures that managerial decisions are adapted in response to changes in the project's risk profile.