Structural transformation of Russia's debt market

Abstract

Subject. Structural transformation of Russia’s debt market. Objectives. To identify the structural patterns in the dynamics of the Russian Federation’s debt market. Methodology. The study employs approximation techniques, neural network and cluster analysis, and scenario‑based forecasting. Results. An outpacing growth of the debt market has been identified, particularly in the segments of lending to non‑financial organizations, debt securities, and household loans. Neural network analysis has confirmed the system‑forming role of the debt securities market. Cluster analysis has revealed similar dynamics in securitization operations for mortgage and consumer loans, as well as a weak correlation between loans and debt securities issued by non‑financial organizations. A structural shift in corporate debt has been detected, with a growing share of loans featuring floating interest rates. Forecasts have been developed, and the opportunities and risks associated with the structural transformation of Russia’s debt market have been systematized. The study demonstrates that the profound structural transformation of Russia’s debt market is characterized by both growth and diversification of instruments, along with an increasing role of non‑bank financing. Coordinated actions by all market participants are required to strengthen oversight of asset quality, stimulate the development of the corporate bond market, and implement mechanisms for managing interest rate risks. Conclusions. The research findings are intended for regulators, financial institutions, and the academic community to help develop measures aimed at reducing the structural risks of Russia’s debt market.