The impact of digital transformation on cyclical dynamics and evolutionary and institutional conditions of foreign trade relations between Russia and Central Asian countries

Abstract

The article examines the impact of digital transformation on the change in Russia's foreign trade cycle with Central Asian countries. The purpose of the work. In contrast to the works in which digitalization is considered primarily as a technological background, in this article it is analyzed as an institutional mechanism for reducing transaction costs, stabilizing payments, speeding up logistical decisions and restructuring commodity flows after external shocks. The empirical part is based on a comparison of published data on Russia's trade turnover with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, as well as on the author's matrix for assessing the impact of digital tools on the phases of the foreign trade cycle. Methodology. The research uses methods of historical and economic analysis, theory of industrial and technological balance of the economy, system paradigm, evolutionary and institutional theory, expert and analytical assessments. Results. The results show that digital transformation does not eliminate the cyclical nature of foreign trade, but changes its form: it reduces the adaptation lag, strengthens the role of platform intermediaries, increases the importance of electronic document management, and shifts some of the institutional constraints from tariffs to data, payment infrastructure, and compliance. Conclusions. The practical result of the study is to identify the digital contours of the foreign trade stability of Russia and Central Asian countries.