Analysis of the Impact of Bilateral Monetary Agreements and Digital Currencies on International Oil and Gas Trade

Abstract

International oil and gas trade has traditionally been founded upon the hegemony of the U.S. dollar and the petrodollar system over recent decades. This structural dependency has transformed Western-dominated financial networks into instruments of power projection and has given rise to a phenomenon referred to as weaponized interdependence. The consequence of this condition for independent economies and developing countries has been severe vulnerability to secondary financial sanctions, restrictions on access to international payment systems, and rising settlement costs. Given the existing research gap in presenting an integrated model that simultaneously examines macroeconomic dimensions, commercial applications, security risks, and legal requirements, the primary objective of this study is to analyze the role of disruptive financial technologies and emerging geo-economic alliances in transforming the architecture of energy trade and international settlement systems, with a focus on policy implications for Iran. In terms of purpose, this study is fundamental-applied research, and in terms of nature, it is descriptive-analytical with a qualitative approach. The findings indicate that the establishment of bilateral monetary agreements can substantially reduce transaction costs and enhance economic resilience under sanctions by eliminating intermediary currencies. On the other hand, the utilization of digital currencies, blockchain technology, and smart contracts provides a suitable platform for instantaneous, transparent, and restriction-resistant cross-border settlements. Nevertheless, this transition is accompanied by serious challenges, including legal ambiguities, money laundering risks, tax evasion, cyber threats, and high energy consumption. Ultimately, the study argues that the energy trade system is moving toward a multipolar, multi-currency, and technology-driven financial order, and that these emerging instruments constitute strategic levers for the reconfiguration of power in the global economy, the effective utilization of which requires an intelligent and balanced regulatory approach.